Russian Military Intervention - (RAND Corporation) Moscow's use of its military abroad in recent years has radically changed the perception of Russia as an international actor. With its annexation of Crimea in 2014, its invasion of eastern Ukraine and the maintenance of an insurgency there, and (especially) its 2015 intervention in Syria, Russia has repeatedly surprised US policymakers with its willingness and ability to use the military to achieve its foreign policy goals. .
Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more intervention than any other US competitor since the end of the Cold War. In this report, the author assesses when, where and why Russia intervened militarily by analyzing 25 interventions by Russia since 1991, including the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and Moscow's involvement in the Syrian civil war.
Russian Military Intervention
The authors suggest that Russia is likely to intervene to prevent the erosion of its influence in its neighborhood, especially after a shock depicting such rapid erosion. In the event of regime change in a key Russian regional ally, such as Belarus or Armenia, which imposes a government hostile to Moscow's interests, military intervention is possible (if not impossible).
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Determinants of Aid to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees New Voices in Eurasia with Volha Charnish (February 16) Russia has sent a small but significant military force to Syria, adding a volatile new dimension to Syria's four-year civil war. And on Wednesday, Russia launched its first official airstrikes in Syria.
Russian installations at several military sites along Syria's Mediterranean coast are far from a full strike force, but still a useful addition, potentially making Russia a direct participant in the war for the first time. Russia has transferred hundreds of troops, 28 fighter jets and 14 gunships and transport helicopters, as well as 6 tanks, 15 artillery pieces and some other equipment.
On the surface, Russia's goals seem clear: to support Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, Russia's longtime war ally and proxy, and project Russian power to the world. In Washington, DC, Vladimir Putin's rise is seen as a good strategic move and an affront to America. (DC political pundits remain Putin's most loyal fan base outside the former Soviet Union.)
But there is more going on here than meets the eye. Here are eight things to know about Russia's intervention in Syria, which will help explain what happened and what it means.
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1) Putin's intervention is not an act of grand grand strategy. This is a cowardly act and unlikely to succeed.
If Putin's goal is to prop up Bashar al-Assad, donating Russian airstrikes and attack helicopters (which are in Syria but don't appear to be used) will help shore up Assad, but he will win. Do not change the basic calculation of the battle.
For one thing, it is likely to increase resentment against Assad among non-jihadists and jihadists alike, and to increase the legitimacy of groups like Jabhat al-Nusra, who pose the greatest threat to Assad. For another, the Putin-Assad alliance, along with Iran and Hezbollah, is dominated by Shiites and other non-Sunnis, which will deepen the sectarian dynamics of the war. As Assad represents a sectarian minority in Syria, this is not a winning formula for him.
So why is Putin doing this? As Amanda Taub writes, Syria is the sum of our greatest fears: fear of anarchy, fear of populist uprisings, fear of Western intervention, fear of the collapse of authoritarian regimes, and fear of ongoing global chaos—all forces. Which Putin believes he can one day turn against him. What he did was not a grand and brilliant strategy to expand Russia's power, but a desperate attempt to stop the forces that threatened him.
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So when someone tells you that Putin is a brilliant chess master who is only checking America, don't buy it for a second.
Russia said the airstrikes were against ISIS and Putin, speaking at the United Nations General Assembly this week, described the Syrian intervention as an effort against the group. But their first, second, and third goals are to support Bashar al-Assad, and that means targeting non-ISIS rebel groups, not ISIS. And, in practice, that's what the Russian military has done so far.
#Russia appears to have bombed Ltamenah, Zaafrana and Talbeseh, all held by groups not affiliated with #ISIS... — Michael Horowitz (@michaelh992) September 30, 2015
The reason for this is quite simple. The biggest threat to Assad is not ISIS, a group that Assad actually tolerates, but the country's many non-ISIS rebel groups. Some of these groups are jihadists (al-Qaeda's local branch, Jabhat al-Nusra, is one), and some simply want to fight Assad's tyranny. But they are actually threatening the Syrian dictator, and despite Moscow's rhetoric, they are really targeting Russia.
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Russia, once a global power with proxies in every corner of the globe, now has few allies outside the Soviet republics. One of the last is Syria, which formed an alliance with Moscow in the 1970s when Bashar's father, Hafez al-Assad, was in power.
Syria has long maintained a balance between its two sponsors, Iran and Russia, often privileging the latter because it is stronger and more important. That began to change in 2011 and 2012, when the Syrian civil war began. Assad relies on Russian diplomatic protection against Western interference, as well as Russian military hardware. But they rely more on Iran, which provides not only hardware on the ground but also military officers and boots, as well as support for the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
As the Syrian war drags on, Bashar al-Assad has become less a Russian proxy and more an Iranian proxy, with Tehran practically running Assad's war. Russia's traditional ties to the Syrian military and intelligence are becoming less important and less useful. In August 2013, Assad defied Moscow by using chemical weapons against Russia.
It looks like Moscow is losing its last foothold in the Middle East - and it's the Iranians, not the Americans or the British, who are pushing them. (Meanwhile, Iran also signed the nuclear deal, which could lead Moscow to ease ties with the West and thus become less dependent on Russian support.)
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If Moscow wants to retain ultimate power in the Middle East, it must use its influence in Syria, particularly with the Assad government. This military intervention makes Russia a key player in Syria once again. This forced Assad to rely on Moscow again. It also changes things
Yes, Russia and Iran are all still the same, yes they will continue to cooperate with the common goal of supporting Assad, and yes Tehran has officially welcomed the intervention. But Moscow also wants to increase its influence and importance in Syria, and the biggest threat today is Iran.
There are also theories that Putin may be hoping to bolster and protect Russia's influence in Syria, as well as give him something he can use to strike a bigger deal with the US and Europe.
There are two versions of this theory. One version says that Putin wants to disrupt the situation in Syria, threaten Western interests there, to force the West to make concessions. Another version says that Putin believes he can offer Russian military and intelligence support to Islamic extremists in Syria as a trade gift in exchange for Western concessions.
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Personally, I find the latter more convincing; Since taking office in 2000, Putin has consistently portrayed Russia and the West as natural allies against the threat of Islamic extremism, which has been heavily played up by state media. And recent voices from the Kremlin suggest that while Putin wants to present this as an opportunity to partner with the West, Russia is not holding Syria hostage.
But whichever version of the theory makes more sense to you, the result is the same: Putin wants to exchange Russia's involvement in Syria for a grand deal with the West, which would end not only with Syria but also Ukraine and Western sanctions. Two issues are very important to Putin - against Russia.
Putin is expected to make a big deal with the West in a speech to the United Nations on Monday and a private evening meeting with Obama, where he will push for some mediation solutions to help fight terrorism (especially in Syria). End Western sanctions on Ukraine, and Russia. In general, Putin has only offered counterterrorism cooperation, inviting world leaders into a dubious "anti-Hitler coalition" against ISIS that the West has strongly criticized. Whether he will try to find more than that remains to be seen.
Several jihadist groups are fighting in Syria, the largest of which is
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